The 5 Moves the Phillies Should Make

Ruben Amaro Jr. is going to have a busy winter. For the first time in his tenure, the Phillies head into the offseason without a playoff berth in their rearview mirror. Instead of champagne and high-fives, the Phillies have head aches and question marks. Sure, they should get healthier in the rotation, the bullpen, and in the heart of the lineup. But, there remains gaping holes in the outfield, in the backend of the ‘pen, and at the back of the rotation. Below are five moves that would put the Phillies closer to contending for a title once again:

1. Sign Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $125 million contract.

I understand the risks involved with signing any lucrative free agent, let alone one with the history that Hamilton has. The #1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, Hamilton dealt with depression and drug addiction in the early “aughts” and would go on to miss the 2004-2006 seasons altogether. It was not until 2007, when he joined the Cincinnati Reds, that Hamilton found his niche in baseball. Since then, he has had problems with relapses (alcohol related, not drug) and recently quit chewing tobacco, which Nolan Ryan blamed for his second half slump in 2012.

Still, Hamilton is the best offensive force available this offseason. The 2010 AL MVP hit .285 with 43 HR and 128 RBI in 148 games last season. The risks are well known. But, if you can get him for 4 or 5 years, the reward might be worth it. The Phillies will either ante up for Hamilton, or they can spend nearly $100 million for less production with Michael Bourn.

2. Sign Kevin Youkilis to a 2 year, $25 million contract.

I know the injury risks that go along with both of these fellows. But, they’re the best players available at their positions this offseason. If Amaro can get Youkilis on a one or two year deal, it could end up being a steal for the Phillies.

The veteran third baseman has seen a decline in his health and production the past few seasons. But, when compared to the motley crew of available players at the hot corner, he’s a wide step up. After getting traded to the White Sox from Boston, Youk’s production rose dramatically. He’s still a sharp fielder, and that coupled with his experience would make him a fine snag short term.

3. Sign Koji Uehara to a one year, $4.5 million contract.

The 37-year-old Japanese right hander has blossomed since his move to the bullpen in 2010. After coming over to America in 2009 as a starter with Baltimore, Uehara evolved into a capable late-inning bullpen piece. He was traded to Texas in 2011, and experienced the best numbers of his career in 2012. Uehara pitched 36 innings with the Rangers, going 0-0 with a 1.75 ERA, 1 save, and a 43:3 strikeout to walk ratio.

With the Wilton Lopez deal falling through, the Phils should look at Uehara as a fine alternative.

4. Platoon Darin Ruf/Domonic Brown in Right Field; Nate Schierholtz/John Mayberry in Left Field.

You cannot spend money everywhere and hope to still have some come next year. The Phillies need to maximize their monetary value by keeping their corner outfield positions in house. Luckily, the Phils have plenty of depth at those positions, even if it’s of the unspectacular variety.

Brown has been the Phillies’ top prospect and most untouchable asset for what feels like three decades now. His development was stunted by the presence of Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Hunter Pence. Now, it’s time to let him roam free. Ruf, meanwhile, burst onto the scene in 2012. After being named just the 20th best prospect in the Phillies’ system, the 26-year-old slugger made his name in the minors before emerging as a bonafide power threat in the majors during his September call up. Playing Brown against most righties and Ruf against most lefties would maximize their value and allow the team to truly judge who is the keeper.

Meanwhile, at the other corner outfield spot, there is also an opening. John Mayberry had a mediocre season (his .695 OPS was the worst among Phillies with over 400 at bats). But, his performance against lefties (.811 OPS) was better than the $75 million man himself, BJ Upton. His platoon partner would be Nate Schierholtz, whom the Phillies acquired from San Francisco in July. With one of the best arms in baseball, the left handed hitting Schierholtz would give the Phillies an added asset in the outfield.

5. Sign Brandon McCarthy to a 3 year, $24 million contract.

A former top prospect of the Chicago White Sox; McCarthy’s name was thrown around an awful lot back in 2005 when the Sox were interested in former Phillies’ closer Billy Wagner. Now, seven years and a whole lot of surgeries later, the former ace-in-waiting has evolved into a very talented middle-of-the-rotation starter. Yes, he is still an injury risk. But, the potential reward is worth it.

Over the last two seasons, McCarthy has made 43 starts. Over that span, he’s 17-15 with a 3.29 ERA and a 196:49 strikeout to walk ratio. That impressive control is further magnified by the fact that he has thrown just 3 wild pitches in two seasons.

Now, some may be wondering why the Phillies need to invest more capital into starting pitching. Well, let us consider this for a moment. The team has two aging aces at the top in Roy Halladay (free agent after 2013) and Cliff Lee. Their health and longevity is certainly something to keep an eye on. After those two and Cole Hamels, it becomes a question mark as to whom will take over the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation. Vance Worley’s promising 2011 was overrun by a disappointing 2012. His campaign eventually ended with elbow problems, and we’re not quite sure how productive he will be in 2013. Then, there’s Kyle Kendrick. KK enjoyed the best year of his career and I expect him to be in the rotation come Spring Training. But, if Worley is hurt and Kendrick (whose contract also runs out after 2013) remains inconsistent, the Phillies will have some serious problems at the back end.

If McCarthy weren’t such an injury risk, he would probably be commanding a 5-6 year deal worth $15+ million a year. But, if the Phillies can get him for 3 or fewer years and under $10 million annually, they will have to jump.

Projected Lineup

1. SS Jimmy Rollins
2. C Carlos Ruiz
3. 2B Chase Utley
4. 1B Ryan Howard
5. CF Josh Hamilton
6. 3B Kevin Youkilis
7. RF Domonic Brown/Darin Ruf
8. LF John Mayberry/Nate Schierholtz

Wilton No-pez? Right Hander’s Move to Philadelphia Delayed

 

We reported yesterday that the Phillies had orchestrated a trade that would send Houston Astros RP Wilton Lopez to Philadelphia in exchange for minor leaguers. The deal appeared close to conclusion, with Lopez in town for a physical. However, it now appears as though the trade will not happen at all. Multiple sources are suggesting that the problem may have come during Lopez’s physical examination.

The 29 year old right hander spent time on the DL this past season with a sprained elbow. In fact, a scout from an unnamed third team was quoted as saying, “Philadelphia had better get a physical.” Lopez also missed time in 2011 with ulnar neuritis in his elbow. If the injuries are deemed too risky for the Phillies to acquire, the trade will be cancelled and Lopez will remain an Astro.

Even more interesting than the possibility of no trade, are the consequences of a deal getting done. Lopez would fill the need of a talented right hander who throws strikes in front of Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen. However, reports have emerged suggesting that SP Tyler Cloyd and C Sebastian Valle were involved in the deal. This seems like an awful lot to give up for an oft-injured right handed reliever.

Valle, 22, hit .261 with 13 HR and 45 RBI in 83 games with Reading in 2012. He was ranked the Phillies’ seventh best prospect by MLB.com going into 2012. However, the acquisition of Tommy Joseph from San Francisco in the Hunter Pence trade renders Valle’s potential growth in the Philadelphia system moot. Joseph is the better prospect, so do not be surprised to see Valle’s name thrown around a lot this season.

Cloyd, 25, exploded onto the scene in 2012 after not even being listed on the Phillies’ top 20 prospects last spring. The 18th round pick in 2008, Cloyd enjoyed a breakout campaign in AAA Lehigh Valley, going 12-1 with a 2.35 ERA. His K:BB ratio, however, suggests that he is more of a 4 or 5 starter than an ace in waiting. After being recalled to the majors in the second half of the season, the Nebraska native went 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA with 30 K to only 7 BB. He had a great season, but Cloyd reminds most scouts more of Tyler Green or Kyle Kendrick than Cole Hamels or Gavid Floyd. 

If the Phillies cannot work out a deal with the Astros, they’ll have to head back to the drawing board. Having already lost out on BJ Upton this offseason, Ruben Amaro will certainly be burning the midnight oil at next week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville.

Week Thirteen NFL Picks

 

Last Week: 7-7-2
2012 Season: 83-74-4

New Orleans Saints (5-6) AT Atlanta Falcons (10-1)

The Spread: Atlanta by 3.5
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 30-24
The Rationale: The Saints’ defense is still atrocious. One merely has to look at how they were trashed by a rookie Quarterback making his second NFL start last Sunday. Matt Ryan, meanwhile, bounced back from his 5 interception performance two weeks ago to lead the Falcons to a victory over Tampa Bay last week. I don’t see the Saints stopping the Atlanta air attack.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) AT Buffalo Bills (4-7)

The Spread: Buffalo by 6
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: Buffalo, 27-13
The Rationale: Buffalo is not a very good team. But, at the same time, Jacksonville might be the worst team in the NFL. They have been playing better with Chad Henne under center, but a road trip to frosty Buffalo is not likely to have a happy ending for Jacksonville.

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) AT Chicago Bears (8-3)

The Spread: Chicago by 4
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 26-21
The Rationale: If the Bears have Jay Cutler, they’re a Super Bowl contender. Lucky for them, they will have him this Sunday. Seattle is great at home, mediocre on the road. Their playoff hopes will take another hit on Sunday. 

Indianapolis Colts (7-4) AT Detroit Lions (4-7)

The Spread: Detroit by 4.5
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 28-21
The Rationale: I’m buying the Andrew Luck hype machine. But, I’m not buying the Colts as a legitimate contender this season. Their defense has been exposed by talented passing games like New England. If Detroit can mimic their Thanksgiving performance, they should get a win. 

Minnesota Vikings (6-5) AT Green Bay Packers (7-4)

The Spread: Green Bay by 9
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 31-17
The Rationale: Tough two week stretch for the Vikings. They had to go into Soldier Field in Chicago last week and now travel to the frozen tundra of Green Bay. Christian Ponder is regressing as the season goes along. That doesn’t bode well when going against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, who are angry after getting destroyed by New York on Sunday night.

Houston Texans (10-1) AT Tennessee Titans (4-7)

The Spread: Houston by 5.5
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston, 35-17
The Rationale: Well, here’s a lock of the week. The Texans are coming off a long break after winning on Thanksgiving, are facing one of the worst run defenses in football, and have the best record in football. Somehow, they’re only favored by 5.5.

San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) AT St. Louis Rams (4-6-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 7
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: San Francisco, 23-20
The Rationale: The last game between these two ended in a tie. I hope I’m not the only one hoping for the same. Colin Kaepernick has been steady so far. But, St. Louis will keep it close again.

Carolina Panthers (3-8) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)

The Spread: Carolina by 3
The Pick: Kansas City
The Score: Kansas City, 24-23
The Rationale: I’m going out on a limb just by picking Kansas City to have a touchdown in this game. But, if Bryce Brown can go buck wild against Carolina, imagine what Jamaal Charles could do? Chiefs get the upset!

Cleveland Browns (3-8) AT Oakland Raiders (3-8)

The Spread: Pick ’em
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Oakland, 23-21
The Rationale: I don’t really like this pick. I think Cleveland is the better team right now. But, traveling across the country is never easy. Let alone for a three win team. The Browns are coming off an emotional victory vs. Pittsburgh. A letdown is in order.

New England Patriots (8-3) AT Miami Dolphins (5-6)

The Spread: New England by 7.5
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 33-19
The Rationale: A long break after their thanksgiving thrashing of the Jets is just what the doctor ordered for the Pats. They’ll come out strong and mimic their week one triumph in Miami last season. 

Arizona Cardinals (4-7) AT New York Jets (4-7)

The Spread: New York by 4.5
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 24-14
The Rationale: The only QB in the league that I trust less that Mark Sanchez is Ryan Lindley. Arizona has lost seven in a row and the slippery slope doesn’t seem to be drying up any time soon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) AT Denver Broncos (8-3)

The Spread: Denver by 7
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Tampa Bay, 28-24
The Rationale: How’s that for an upset? The Buccaneers need it more than the Broncos after back to back losses to Carolina and Atlanta. Josh Freeman has been a pleasant surprise in 2012.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) AT San Diego Chargers (4-7)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 1.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 17-14
The Rationale: I find no reason to pick the San Diego Chargers until Norv Turner is fired. That 4th and 29 conversion by Baltimore last week was one of the most impressive and ludicrous things I have ever seen. The Bengals are heating up at the right time.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) AT Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

The Spread: Pick ’em
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 24-17
The Rationale: This spread is messy because of the uncertainty surrounding Ben Roethlisberger. If he plays, this should be a close game. If he doesn’t, Pittsburgh fans better say their hail mary’s. 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) AT Dallas Cowboys (5-6)

The Spread: Dallas by 10
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 64-7
The Rationale: Okay, the score was a bit of a fabrication. But, the Eagles are just falling apart at the seams. Seven straight losses with none of them in the past six weeks even being close. Dallas is not exactly the model of success, either. But, no one can match the Eagles for ineptitude. 28-13, Dallas. 

New York Giants (7-4) AT Washington Redskins (5-6)

The Spread: New York by 2.5
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 23-20
The Rationale: A lot of people picking RG3. But, hiccups are natural for a rookie QB. The Giants’ pass rush should have more success than the Eagles or Cowboys did at neutralizing the kid’s ability.

Phils Make First Splash: Trade for Wilton Lopez

I would not expect most of our readers to know who Wilton Lopez is. The 29-year-old Nicaraguan has spent his entire four year career toiling in the basement of the NL Central with the Houston Astros. However, the 6’0 right-hander was one of the few bright spots in Houston during that time.

According to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman, the Astros have traded Lopez to the Phillies in exchange for minor leaguers. The terms of the deal are still being discussed.

In 66.1 innings in 2012, Lopez went 6-3 with a 2.17 ERA. Even more impressive was his K:BB ratio. The right-hander struck out 54 batters whilst walking just 8. His 10 saves were second on the team to former Phillie Brett Myers. Over his career dating back to 2009, Lopez has a 4.33:1 strikeout to walk ratio. If there’s one thing that the Phillies needed to drastically improve, it was the bullpen in front of Jonathan Papelbon. This minor move certainly boosts that element.

Lopez, who has pitched over 65 innings each of the last three seasons without an ERA over 3.00, should fit in nicely in Philadelphia. He was originally an amateur signing of the New York Yankees before moving to San Diego in 2007. In 2009, he was claimed off waivers by the Astros from the Padres.

Lopez is your classic fastball, slider, change-up right-hander. He will throw the fastball about 76% of the time followed by the change-up (17%), and his slider (7%). He is arbitration eligible for the first time and is expected to make about $1.5 million in 2013.

Week Twelve Picks in Review

 

Blue = Correct Pick
Red = Incorrect Pick
Black = Push/Tie

Houston Texans (9-1) AT Detroit Lions (4-6)

The Spread: Houston by 3
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 28-26
The Verdict: Houston, 34-31 (OT)

Washington Redskins (4-6) AT Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 3
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 23-17
The Verdict: Washington, 38-31

New England Patriots (7-3) AT New York Jets (4-6)

The Spread: New England by 7
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 34-21
The Verdict: New England, 49-19

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) AT Chicago Bears (7-3)

The Spread: Chicago by 4
The Pick: Minnesota
The Score: Minnesota, 23-20
The Verdict: Chicago, 28-10

Oakland Raiders (3-7) AT Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 8.5
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Cincinnati, 24-19
The Verdict: Cincinnati, 34-10

Buffalo Bills (4-6) AT Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Spread: Indianapolis by 3
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Indianapolis, 30-20
The Verdict: Indianapolis, 20-13

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) AT Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 1
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Cleveland, 17-14
The Verdict: Cleveland, 20-14

Denver Broncos (7-3) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

The Spread: Denver by 10.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 34-9
The Verdict: Denver, 17-9

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) AT Miami Dolphins (4-6)

The Spread: Seattle by 3
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 24-17
The Verdict: Miami, 24-21

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Spread: Atlanta by 1
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 34-24
The Verdict: Atlanta, 24-23

Tennessee Titans (4-6) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

The Spread: Tennessee by 4
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Jacksonville, 23-16
The Verdict: Jacksonville, 24-19

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) AT San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Spread: Baltimore by 1
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 23-14
The Verdict: Baltimore, 16-13 (OT)

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) AT New Orleans Saints (5-5)

The Spread: San Francisco by 1
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 20-14
The Verdict: San Francisco, 31-21

St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) AT Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The Spread: Arizona by 1.5
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis, 14-10
The Verdict: St. Louis, 31-17

Green Bay Packers (7-3) AT New York Giants (6-4)

The Spread: New York by 3
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 23-20
The Verdict: New York, 38-10

Carolina Panthers (2-8) AT Philadelphia Eagles (3-7)

The Spread: Carolina by 2.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 17-16
The Verdict: Carolina, 30-22

Record for the week: 7-7-2
Record for the year: 83-74-4

Week Twelve NFL Picks

 

Last Week: 9-5
2012 Season: 76-67-2

Houston Texans (9-1) AT Detroit Lions (4-6)

The Spread: Houston by 3
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 28-26
The Rationale: I know the Texans are the better team and all. But, having to travel on a short week to Detroit from Houston and play the early game is a serious detriment to a team without much urgency to win. Lions get a big one.

Washington Redskins (4-6) AT Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 3
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 23-17
The Rationale: The Eagles made RGIII look like Fran Tarkenton last week. Dallas’ defense should have a little more success seeing as how they actually have NFL talent on it. I like the home team once again.

New England Patriots (7-3) AT New York Jets (4-6)

The Spread: New England by 7
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 34-21
The Rationale: The J-E-T-S offense is atrocious. I’m surprised I gave them three touchdowns. 

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) AT Chicago Bears (7-3)

The Spread: Chicago by 4
The Pick: Minnesota
The Score: Minnesota, 23-20
The Rationale: The Bears are likely to be without Jay Cutler once again this week. But, Jason Campbell isn’t the whole problem in The Windy City. Their defense is aging and has shown signs of fatigue that past few weeks. If they hope to avoid a second straight season collapse, they’re going to have to shutdown opposing run games. No run game is better than Minnesota’s. 

Oakland Raiders (3-7) AT Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 8.5
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Cincinnati, 24-19
The Rationale: The Bengals have played well the past few weeks. But, it’s unlikely that a team this inconsistent puts together back-to-back blowout performances. I really like Cincinnati to win this game. But, not by 9 points.

Buffalo Bills (4-6) AT Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Spread: Indianapolis by 3
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Indianapolis, 30-20
The Rationale: The Colts are coming off an embarrassing loss in New England. They will almost certainly be out for revenge and the Bills are the unfortunate victim in their path.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) AT Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 1
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Cleveland, 17-14
The Rationale: This game will be ugly, low scoring, and physical. The Browns have defeated Pittsburgh only once since 2003 (a 13-6 triumph in December, 2009). That’s coincidentally also the last time Steelers’ starting QB Charlie Batch was capable of winning football games. Browns in a close one.

Denver Broncos (7-3) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

The Spread: Denver by 10.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 34-9
The Rationale: The Broncos are on fire. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are cold as ice. Double-digit spreads are fool’s gold. But, I’m biting on this one.

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) AT Miami Dolphins (4-6)

The Spread: Seattle by 3
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 24-17
The Rationale: The Seahawks are a whole different breed on the road. Especially when they have to travel across the entire country to get there. It doesn’t get much farther than a Seattle-Miami trip. 

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Spread: Atlanta by 1
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 34-24
The Rationale: A tough divisional rivalry is renewed as Tampa Bay looks to knock off the best team in the NFC. Atlanta snuck out a win last week despite an ugly performance by Matt Ryan (5 interceptions). He’s banged up. But, if they can win when their QB throws five picks, they should be safe.

Tennessee Titans (4-6) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

The Spread: Tennessee by 4
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Jacksonville, 23-16
The Rationale: Chad Henne had the Jaguars offense moving last week. He’ll be under center again this week. The Titans have one of the worst run defenses in football. Young Jaguars RB Jalen Parmalee gets the start and an opportunity to make a name for himself. 

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) AT San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Spread: Baltimore by 1
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston, 23-14
The Rationale: The Jaguars are very bad. The Texans, meanwhile, are very good. But, I refuse to take a spread that is over two touchdowns. Houston could be in for a letdown game after an emotional and hard-fought triumph over the Bears on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) AT New Orleans Saints (5-5)

The Spread: San Francisco by 1
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 20-14
The Rationale: I have a problem with Jim Harbaugh benching Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick this week. For one, you’re taking a proven veteran and telling him that he lost his job due to injury. Secondly, throwing a young, inexperienced QB into the ring when you’re a Super Bowl contender is always risky. Harbaugh is setting himself up to fail. New Orleans wins.

St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) AT Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The Spread: Arizona by 1.5
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis, 14-10
The Rationale: The Cardinals are looking to avenge a Thursday night defeat to the Rams in week five. I doubt they achieve that goal. Ryan Lindley makes his first start and the former San Diego State signal caller will have his hands full.

Green Bay Packers (7-3) AT New York Giants (6-4)

The Spread: New York by 3
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 23-20
The Rationale: I know, the Giants have had the Packers’ number. But, everyone has had the Giants’ number lately. Eli Manning has been brutal the past few weeks. It won’t get better with Clay Matthews chasing him down. Aaron Rodgers is the difference maker in most games, and he will shine on Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers (2-8) AT Philadelphia Eagles (3-7)

The Spread: Carolina by 2.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 17-16
The Rationale: My homerism is showing. I’ll be at this game and nothing would please me more than to see the Eagles’ six game skid hit the fan. Both teams are struggling and finding new ways to lose. 

Week Eleven Picks in Review

 

Blue = Correct pick
Red = Incorrect Pick
Black = Push

Miami Dolphins (4-5) AT Buffalo Bills (3-6)

The Spread: Buffalo by 1.5
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 28-24
The Verdict: Buffalo, 19-14

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) AT Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Spread: Washington by 3.5
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington, 31-17
The Verdict: Washington, 31-6

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) AT Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Spread: Atlanta by 10
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 30-13
The Verdict: Atlanta, 23-19

Cleveland Browns (2-7) AT Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 7.5
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Dallas, 21-17
The Verdict: Dallas, 23-20

Green Bay Packers (6-3) AT Detroit Lions (4-5)

The Spread: Green Bay by 3.5
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 27-17
The Verdict: Green Bay, 24-20

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 3.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 16-10
The Verdict: Cincinnati, 28-6

New York Jets (3-6) AT St. Louis Rams (3-5-1)

The Spread: St. Louis by 3
The Pick: New York Jets
The Score: St. Louis, 23-21
The Verdict: New York, 27-13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) AT Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Tampa Bay by 1.5
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 33-24
The Verdict: Tampa Bay, 27-21

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) AT Houston Texans (8-1)

The Spread: Houston by 15.5
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston, 23-14
The Verdict: Houston, 43-37

New Orleans Saints (4-5) AT Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Spread: New Orleans by 4.5
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 33-20
The Verdict: New Orleans, 38-17

San Diego Chargers (4-5) AT Denver Broncos (6-3)

The Spread: Denver by 7.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 20-10
The Verdict: Denver, 30-23

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) AT New England Patriots (6-3)

The Spread: New England by 9
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: New England, 28-20
The Verdict: New England, 59-24

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

The Spread: Baltimore by 3
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 24-10
The Verdict: Baltimore. 13-10

Chicago Bears (7-2) AT San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 5
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 20-17
The Verdict: San Francisco, 32-7

Record for the week: 7-6-1
Record for the season: 83-73-3

Thanksgiving Day Picks

 

Ah, football on Thanksgiving. I’m going to have to make this one quick since I am late for some real actual-reality football on Thanksgiving. 

 

Houston Texans (9-1) AT Detroit Lions (4-6)

The Spread: Houston by 3
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 28-26
The Rationale: I know the Texans are the better team and all. But, having to travel on a short week to Detroit from Houston and play the early game is a serious detriment to a team without much urgency to win. Lions get a big one.

Washington Redskins (4-6) AT Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 3
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 23-17
The Rationale: The Eagles made RGIII look like Fran Tarkenton last week. Dallas’ defense should have a little more success seeing as how they actually have NFL talent on it. I like the home team once again.

New England Patriots (7-3) AT New York Jets (4-6)

The Spread: New England by 7
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 34-21
The Rationale: The J-E-T-S offense is atrocious. I’m surprised I gave them three touchdowns. 

Video of the Day: John Carney Makes a Boo-Boo

This video is one of my favorites from a December, 2003 game between the Jaguars and Saints. The Saints orchestrate a spectacular last-second lateral play that scores them a touchdown and, seemingly, ties the game.

Let’s see what happens.

Week Eleven NFL Picks

Last Week: 9-5
2012 Season: 76-67-2

Miami Dolphins (4-5) AT Buffalo Bills (3-6)

The Spread: Buffalo by 1.5
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 28-24
The Rationale: The Dolphins were thrashed last week and have lost two in a row. Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense is looking more like satin than steel. It will be close, but Buffalo will lose their fourth straight.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) AT Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Spread: Washington by 3.5
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington, 31-17
The Rationale: Anyone who thinks that the Eagles’ defense will stop RGIII has not watched them the last 6 weeks.

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) AT Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Spread: Atlanta by 10
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 30-13
The Rationale: The Cardinals have lost five in a row and don’t show any signs of improvement. Meanwhile, the Falcons come off their first loss and head home with fire in their eyes.

Cleveland Browns (2-7) AT Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 7.5
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Dallas, 21-17
The Rationale: The Cowboys’ offense finally resisted turning the ball over last week. But, they return home, where they have struggled ever since they moved into “JerryWorld Stadium.” The Browns haven’t won on the road this year. But, they tend to keep games interesting.

Green Bay Packers (6-3) AT Detroit Lions (4-5)

The Spread: Green Bay by 3.5
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 27-17
The Rationale: I understand why someone would pick the Lions here. But, I don’t have faith in Detroit this season. The Packers have gone buck-wild since their replacement referee aided loss to the Seahawks. They’ve won five in a row and should make it six against the Lions.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 3.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 16-10
The Rationale: I think Kansas City’s defense is starting to come around. But, their offense is just downright brutal. If Jamaal Charles isn’t rushing for 200 yards, they don’t have a prayer.

New York Jets (3-6) AT St. Louis Rams (3-5-1)

The Spread: St. Louis by 3
The Pick: New York Jets
The Score: St. Louis, 23-21
The Rationale: This is about as even a game as I can imagine. Both teams are struggling with inconsistent offenses and disappointing defense. It could go either way. I’ll take the Jets with the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) AT Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Tampa Bay by 1.5
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 33-24
The Rationale: The Panthers have been one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments. But, they’ll get back on track against Tampa Bay. The closeness of this spread tells me something about this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) AT Houston Texans (8-1)

The Spread: Houston by 15.5
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston, 23-14
The Rationale: The Jaguars are very bad. The Texans, meanwhile, are very good. But, I refuse to take a spread that is over two touchdowns. Houston could be in for a letdown game after an emotional and hard-fought triumph over the Bears on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (4-5) AT Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Spread: New Orleans by 4.5
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 33-20
The Rationale: I don’t think that the Saints are a championship caliber team like some seem to be insinuating. Rather, they’re a great offense propping up a brutal defense and beating teams with strong game planning and turnover limitation. They’re also a team playing a really bad team in Oakland. I’ll take Drew Brees over Carson “Pick-Six” Palmer any day of the week.

San Diego Chargers (4-5) AT Denver Broncos (6-3)

The Spread: Denver by 7.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 20-10
The Rationale: The Chargers were in first place a month ago; when they blew a 20+ point lead to Denver and lost. Since then, these two teams are headed in different directions. The writing is on the wall for Norv Turner. If he doesn’t beat Denver, his time is up.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) AT New England Patriots (6-3)

The Spread: New England by 9
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: New England, 28-20
The Rationale: Who would have thought that the Colts would already be back to where they were before Peyton Manning got injured? This is a marquee matchup. But, I’ll take Tom Brady’s experience over Andrew Luck’s potential.

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

The Spread: Baltimore by 3
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 24-10
The Rationale: No Big Ben? Big problems in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have had to deal with their own injuries, but thankfully their offensive stars have remained healthy. Pittsburgh has been without Troy Polamalu for most of the season and now loses their offensive leader, as well. After seeing what Byron Leftwich had against Kansas City last week, I can’t go against Baltimore.

Chicago Bears (7-2) AT San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 5
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 20-17
The Rationale: In what might be a matchup of backups, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick and Chicago’s Jason Campbell will take center-stage in the marquee matchup of the week. Chicago struggled to find consistency last week, and San Francisco’s defense is quite remarkable. But, so is Chicago’s. I think the winner of this game is the team that turns it over less. I’m more confident in the veteran Campbell to limit the mistakes than the youngster Kaepernick.