Week Twelve NFL Picks

Posted: November 24, 2012 in Uncategorized

Image

 

Last Week: 9-5
2012 Season: 76-67-2

Houston Texans (9-1) AT Detroit Lions (4-6)

The Spread: Houston by 3
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 28-26
The Rationale: I know the Texans are the better team and all. But, having to travel on a short week to Detroit from Houston and play the early game is a serious detriment to a team without much urgency to win. Lions get a big one.

Washington Redskins (4-6) AT Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 3
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 23-17
The Rationale: The Eagles made RGIII look like Fran Tarkenton last week. Dallas’ defense should have a little more success seeing as how they actually have NFL talent on it. I like the home team once again.

New England Patriots (7-3) AT New York Jets (4-6)

The Spread: New England by 7
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 34-21
The Rationale: The J-E-T-S offense is atrocious. I’m surprised I gave them three touchdowns. 

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) AT Chicago Bears (7-3)

The Spread: Chicago by 4
The Pick: Minnesota
The Score: Minnesota, 23-20
The Rationale: The Bears are likely to be without Jay Cutler once again this week. But, Jason Campbell isn’t the whole problem in The Windy City. Their defense is aging and has shown signs of fatigue that past few weeks. If they hope to avoid a second straight season collapse, they’re going to have to shutdown opposing run games. No run game is better than Minnesota’s. 

Oakland Raiders (3-7) AT Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 8.5
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Cincinnati, 24-19
The Rationale: The Bengals have played well the past few weeks. But, it’s unlikely that a team this inconsistent puts together back-to-back blowout performances. I really like Cincinnati to win this game. But, not by 9 points.

Buffalo Bills (4-6) AT Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

The Spread: Indianapolis by 3
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Indianapolis, 30-20
The Rationale: The Colts are coming off an embarrassing loss in New England. They will almost certainly be out for revenge and the Bills are the unfortunate victim in their path.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) AT Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 1
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Cleveland, 17-14
The Rationale: This game will be ugly, low scoring, and physical. The Browns have defeated Pittsburgh only once since 2003 (a 13-6 triumph in December, 2009). That’s coincidentally also the last time Steelers’ starting QB Charlie Batch was capable of winning football games. Browns in a close one.

Denver Broncos (7-3) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

The Spread: Denver by 10.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 34-9
The Rationale: The Broncos are on fire. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are cold as ice. Double-digit spreads are fool’s gold. But, I’m biting on this one.

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) AT Miami Dolphins (4-6)

The Spread: Seattle by 3
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 24-17
The Rationale: The Seahawks are a whole different breed on the road. Especially when they have to travel across the entire country to get there. It doesn’t get much farther than a Seattle-Miami trip. 

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Spread: Atlanta by 1
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 34-24
The Rationale: A tough divisional rivalry is renewed as Tampa Bay looks to knock off the best team in the NFC. Atlanta snuck out a win last week despite an ugly performance by Matt Ryan (5 interceptions). He’s banged up. But, if they can win when their QB throws five picks, they should be safe.

Tennessee Titans (4-6) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

The Spread: Tennessee by 4
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Jacksonville, 23-16
The Rationale: Chad Henne had the Jaguars offense moving last week. He’ll be under center again this week. The Titans have one of the worst run defenses in football. Young Jaguars RB Jalen Parmalee gets the start and an opportunity to make a name for himself. 

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) AT San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Spread: Baltimore by 1
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston, 23-14
The Rationale: The Jaguars are very bad. The Texans, meanwhile, are very good. But, I refuse to take a spread that is over two touchdowns. Houston could be in for a letdown game after an emotional and hard-fought triumph over the Bears on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) AT New Orleans Saints (5-5)

The Spread: San Francisco by 1
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 20-14
The Rationale: I have a problem with Jim Harbaugh benching Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick this week. For one, you’re taking a proven veteran and telling him that he lost his job due to injury. Secondly, throwing a young, inexperienced QB into the ring when you’re a Super Bowl contender is always risky. Harbaugh is setting himself up to fail. New Orleans wins.

St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) AT Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The Spread: Arizona by 1.5
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis, 14-10
The Rationale: The Cardinals are looking to avenge a Thursday night defeat to the Rams in week five. I doubt they achieve that goal. Ryan Lindley makes his first start and the former San Diego State signal caller will have his hands full.

Green Bay Packers (7-3) AT New York Giants (6-4)

The Spread: New York by 3
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 23-20
The Rationale: I know, the Giants have had the Packers’ number. But, everyone has had the Giants’ number lately. Eli Manning has been brutal the past few weeks. It won’t get better with Clay Matthews chasing him down. Aaron Rodgers is the difference maker in most games, and he will shine on Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers (2-8) AT Philadelphia Eagles (3-7)

The Spread: Carolina by 2.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 17-16
The Rationale: My homerism is showing. I’ll be at this game and nothing would please me more than to see the Eagles’ six game skid hit the fan. Both teams are struggling and finding new ways to lose. 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s