Week Eleven NFL Picks

Posted: November 14, 2012 in Uncategorized

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Last Week: 9-5
2012 Season: 76-67-2

Miami Dolphins (4-5) AT Buffalo Bills (3-6)

The Spread: Buffalo by 1.5
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 28-24
The Rationale: The Dolphins were thrashed last week and have lost two in a row. Meanwhile, the Bills’ defense is looking more like satin than steel. It will be close, but Buffalo will lose their fourth straight.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) AT Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Spread: Washington by 3.5
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington, 31-17
The Rationale: Anyone who thinks that the Eagles’ defense will stop RGIII has not watched them the last 6 weeks.

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) AT Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Spread: Atlanta by 10
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 30-13
The Rationale: The Cardinals have lost five in a row and don’t show any signs of improvement. Meanwhile, the Falcons come off their first loss and head home with fire in their eyes.

Cleveland Browns (2-7) AT Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 7.5
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Dallas, 21-17
The Rationale: The Cowboys’ offense finally resisted turning the ball over last week. But, they return home, where they have struggled ever since they moved into “JerryWorld Stadium.” The Browns haven’t won on the road this year. But, they tend to keep games interesting.

Green Bay Packers (6-3) AT Detroit Lions (4-5)

The Spread: Green Bay by 3.5
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 27-17
The Rationale: I understand why someone would pick the Lions here. But, I don’t have faith in Detroit this season. The Packers have gone buck-wild since their replacement referee aided loss to the Seahawks. They’ve won five in a row and should make it six against the Lions.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 3.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 16-10
The Rationale: I think Kansas City’s defense is starting to come around. But, their offense is just downright brutal. If Jamaal Charles isn’t rushing for 200 yards, they don’t have a prayer.

New York Jets (3-6) AT St. Louis Rams (3-5-1)

The Spread: St. Louis by 3
The Pick: New York Jets
The Score: St. Louis, 23-21
The Rationale: This is about as even a game as I can imagine. Both teams are struggling with inconsistent offenses and disappointing defense. It could go either way. I’ll take the Jets with the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) AT Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Spread: Tampa Bay by 1.5
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 33-24
The Rationale: The Panthers have been one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments. But, they’ll get back on track against Tampa Bay. The closeness of this spread tells me something about this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) AT Houston Texans (8-1)

The Spread: Houston by 15.5
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Houston, 23-14
The Rationale: The Jaguars are very bad. The Texans, meanwhile, are very good. But, I refuse to take a spread that is over two touchdowns. Houston could be in for a letdown game after an emotional and hard-fought triumph over the Bears on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (4-5) AT Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Spread: New Orleans by 4.5
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: New Orleans, 33-20
The Rationale: I don’t think that the Saints are a championship caliber team like some seem to be insinuating. Rather, they’re a great offense propping up a brutal defense and beating teams with strong game planning and turnover limitation. They’re also a team playing a really bad team in Oakland. I’ll take Drew Brees over Carson “Pick-Six” Palmer any day of the week.

San Diego Chargers (4-5) AT Denver Broncos (6-3)

The Spread: Denver by 7.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 20-10
The Rationale: The Chargers were in first place a month ago; when they blew a 20+ point lead to Denver and lost. Since then, these two teams are headed in different directions. The writing is on the wall for Norv Turner. If he doesn’t beat Denver, his time is up.

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) AT New England Patriots (6-3)

The Spread: New England by 9
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: New England, 28-20
The Rationale: Who would have thought that the Colts would already be back to where they were before Peyton Manning got injured? This is a marquee matchup. But, I’ll take Tom Brady’s experience over Andrew Luck’s potential.

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

The Spread: Baltimore by 3
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 24-10
The Rationale: No Big Ben? Big problems in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have had to deal with their own injuries, but thankfully their offensive stars have remained healthy. Pittsburgh has been without Troy Polamalu for most of the season and now loses their offensive leader, as well. After seeing what Byron Leftwich had against Kansas City last week, I can’t go against Baltimore.

Chicago Bears (7-2) AT San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 5
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 20-17
The Rationale: In what might be a matchup of backups, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick and Chicago’s Jason Campbell will take center-stage in the marquee matchup of the week. Chicago struggled to find consistency last week, and San Francisco’s defense is quite remarkable. But, so is Chicago’s. I think the winner of this game is the team that turns it over less. I’m more confident in the veteran Campbell to limit the mistakes than the youngster Kaepernick.

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