NFL Predictions Week 13

Posted: November 27, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Last week: 10-4-0
2013 season: 74-91-9
Overall: 190-195-16

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) AT Detroit Lions (6-5)

The Spread: Detroit by 6
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 27-20
The Rationale: Matt Flynn is on a short week and playing his first Thanksgiving game against a Lions team that has to be pissed off after a home loss to Tampa Bay. If Detroit loses this one, I don’t see how they can win the division.

Oakland Raiders (4-7) AT Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

The Spread: Dallas by 10
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Dallas, 31-24
The Rationale: The Cowboys are notorious for playing down to their competition. Oakland comes into this game with a woeful pass defense, one that should be shredded to pieces by the Cowboys this Thanksgiving. But, there’s something about this Matt McGloin kid. Oakland will keep it to single digits.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) AT Baltimore Ravens (5-6)

The Spread: Baltimore by 3
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 21-17
The Rationale: The Ravens are at home and that will be the difference. Baltimore is 4-1 at M&T Bank Stadium this season. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 2-4 away from home. Coming off a big win in Cleveland, it may be asking too much of a banged up Steelers team to come up with two consecutive division victories on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) AT Cleveland Browns (4-7)

The Spread: Cleveland by 7
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Jacksonville, 20-17
The Rationale: Cleveland has Brandon Weeden back under center now that Jason Campbell is injured yet again. That means bad things for a city that got teased by Brian Hoyer early on this season. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is suddenly looking at costing itself a top-three pick in next spring’s draft. Still, it’s nice to see some signs of life from an otherwise dead franchise. The Browns, on the other hand, need a quarterback badly. With the sixth pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select…?

Tennessee Titans (5-6) AT Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

The Spread: Indianapolis by 4
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Tennessee, 24-21
The Rationale: The Colts are trending downward. They’ve lost two of their last three by a combined 59 points. Their only win in that stretch was against these same Titans two Thursdays ago. In that game, the Titans were up two scores in the third quarter before succumbing to a late surge by Andrew Luck. If he continues to get no running game, there won’t be much time for Luck to lead a comeback again versus the Titans.

Chicago Bears (6-5) AT Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1)

The Spread: Minnesota by 2
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 30-24
The Rationale: I get that the Vikings played well enough to tie in Lambeau Field last week. But, that game was against the duo of Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn. The Vikings’ defense still isn’t good enough to make me feel confident that they can win even against Josh McCown.

Miami Dolphins (5-6) AT New York Jets (5-6)

The Spread: New York by 2
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 20-10
The Rationale: It’s rarely a wise move to take Miami in the cold. But, New York’s offense has been in a real rut lately. The poor play of Geno Smith is likely going to send the free falling Jets deeper into a hole. Amazing to think that this is the same team that beat New Orleans. The Dolphins will join the Titans and Chargers as the three prime contenders for the AFC’s sixth seed.

Arizona Cardinals (7-4) AT Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)

The Spread: Philadelphia by 3
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 27-23
The Rationale: The Eagles come off the bye to face perhaps their stiffest competition nearly two months. Arizona’s defense is incredibly talented, as evidenced by their total destruction of Indianapolis last week. But, the Cardinals at home are a far different breed than on the road, and the Eagles’ offense has been clicking at an accelerated pace.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) AT Carolina Panthers (8-3)

The Spread: Carolina by 8
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Tampa Bay, 24-23
The Rationale: Classic trap game. The Panthers have won seven straight games and appear on the verge of taking over first place from the New Orleans Saints in two weeks. But, hold that thought. The Buccaneers are scorching hot as well, having won three straight games. Tampa Bay has always given the Panthers fits, and it will continue with a massive upset on Sunday.

New England Patriots (8-3) AT Houston Texans (2-9)

The Spread: New England by 8
The Pick: New England
The Score: New Engand, 30-14
The Rationale: The Patriots could be in for a letdown this week. But, I wouldn’t count on it. Houston has been in an absolute free fall for over two months and it’s not likely to get better this quickly. Tom Brady should have a field day.

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) AT Buffalo Bills (4-7)

The Spread: Buffalo by 4
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: Buffalo, 23-17
The Rationale: How bad are the Falcons? Mike Smith might find himself out of a job if Atlanta loses out. Going into the season, they were considered one of the favorites in the NFC. Now, they’re the odds on favorite for the #1 overall pick. Buffalo has been trending upward, and should beat an Atlanta team that is 0-5 on the road.

St. Louis Rams (5-6) AT San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The Spread: San Francisco by 9
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: San Francisco, 23-20
The Rationale: This is a huge game for St. Louis. Left for dead after the loss of Sam Bradford last month, the Rams have suddenly won two in a row by a combined total of 51 points. The schedule is difficult from here-on-out. But, a win over San Francisco and then one at Arizona next week could propel St. Louis into the NFC’s sixth seed. I’m not sure that will happen. But, they’ll keep this one close.

Denver Broncos (9-2) AT Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)

The Spread: Denver by 5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 27-13
The Rationale: The Chiefs started 9-0 on the season but will have to avoid a third straight loss this weekend. There is little doubt that Kansas City will be heading to the playoffs. After all, the AFC as a whole is mediocre at best. Still, Denver is coming off a very disappointing loss against New England and it’s a rarity that Peyton Manning loses two games in a row.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) AT San Diego Chargers (5-6)

The Spread: San Diego by 1
The Pick: San Diego
The Score: San Diego, 34-28
The Rationale: The Chargers’ race for the postseason began last week with an impressive victory over Kansas City. With a win against the inconsistent Bengals, San Diego can move into the driver’s seat for the sixth seed. This might be the best game of the week.

New York Giants (4-7) AT Washington Redskins (3-8)

The Spread: New York by 1
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 20-10
The Rationale: I’m rather shocked that this game was not flexed out of this spot. But, when New York wants something, it gets it. As for the game itself, who cares? These are two teams with no playoff hopes and serious changes coming this offseason. Washington has looked pathetic of late, and that’s why I have to go with New York.

New Orleans Saints (9-2) AT Seattle Seahawks (10-1)

The Spread: Seattle by 6
The Pick: New Orleans
The Score: Seattle, 20-17
The Rationale: Seattle will likely continue their home dominance this week against the #2 team in the NFC. But, it should be an excellent game.

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