Week Five Picks

Posted: October 3, 2012 in Uncategorized


Last Week: 9-6
2012 Season: 35-26-1

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) AT St. Louis Rams (2-2)

The Spread: Arizona by 1.5
The Pick: Arizona
The Score: Arizona, 24-10
The Rationale: The Cardinals have butchered the Rams 10 of the last 11 times the two franchises have met (including a sweep last season). Despite their struggles last week against Miami, I don’t see St. Louis having success on offense against the Cardinals stout defense. Larry Fitzgerald has more touchdowns against St. Louis (13) than against any other NFL team.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) AT Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 3.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 21-14
The Rationale: I’d like Miami more in this game if they hadn’t traded away their best cover Cornerback (Vontae Davis) immediately before the season began. AJ Green is at top 5 WR in football and he should score at least one touchdown against a mediocre Miami secondary. Protecting Andy Dalton is key for the Bengals, as Cameron Wake (4.5 sacks last week) will be on the prowl.

Green Bay Packers (2-2) AT Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Spread: Green Bay by 7
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 34-20
The Rationale: I think Andrew Luck is going to be quite a player in this league. Maybe, he’ll even match the accomplishments of Aaron Rodgers. But, that day is not this Sunday. Indianapolis is dealing with the recent diagnosis of Leukemia to Head Coach Chuck Pagano. I think they’ll put up a fight. But, Green Bay’s pass rush and passing game will be too much for the Colts to overcome.

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

The Spread: Baltimore by 6
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore, 26-17
The Rationale: Arrowhead Stadium has always been considered a difficult place to play. But, the Ravens are just the type of team that can go into tough environments and win with their defense and running game. Kansas City has had trouble turning the ball over this season (a league leading 15 through four games) and that seems unlikely to cease against Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) AT New York Giants (2-2)

The Spread: New York by 9
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: New York, 20-17
The Rationale: Yes, the Giants are a much better team than the Browns. But, Cleveland has fourteen days to prepare and a defense that has performed capably against Philadelphia and Baltimore. The Giants will win. But, Cleveland will keep it close. It’s a shame that the Browns have no passing game because Trent Richardson looks like a real keeper.

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) AT Washington Redskins (2-2)

The Spread: Atlanta by 3
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 27-21
The Rationale: The Falcons are not going to go undefeated. But, they’re also not going to get beat by RG3 and the Redskins. Washington looks improved on offense; and how could they not be after a season with Rex Grossman at the helm?

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) AT Carolina Panthers (1-3)

The Spread: Carolina by 3
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 27-17
The Rationale: Russell Wilson was on top of the world after the Seahawks’ referee aided victory against Green Bay. He is more likely to be underneath Charles Johnson’s outstretched grasp this Sunday. I don’t think the Panthers’ hopes are dashed yet and a win this week will keep them alive in the NFC Wild Card chase.

Chicago Bears (3-1) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

The Spread: Chicago by 6
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 28-13
The Rationale: It seems like I am picking a lot of favorites. But, that has more to do with the fact that there are a lot of bad games this week than the possibility that I’m a rat-faced favorite picker. Chicago had a big win on Monday. This is a potential let-down game, that’s for sure. But, Jacksonville is brutal and I’ll pick Mitt Romney to win tonight’s presidential debate before I pick Blaine Gabbert to beat Chicago this Sunday.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) AT Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

The Spread: Minnesota by 5.5
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Tennessee, 20-17
The Rationale: Matt Hasselbeck is back in the saddle in Nashville. Jake Locker’s injury opens the door for the veteran to act as savior for the Titans. He will get his first victory of the season this week. I don’t have enough faith in Minnesota yet to proclaim them a potential contender in the NFC. They’re in for a letdown this week.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 3.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 23-22
The Rationale: All three of the Eagles’ victories have come by 2 points or less so why jump off the ship now? Pittsburgh is favored in this game despite the fact that they lost to the lowly Oakland Raiders two weeks ago. On a neutral field, I disagree with Vegas and make the Eagles favorites. But, since this game is being played in front of the inbreds at Heinz Field, I’ll take the Birds by one.

Denver Broncos (2-2) AT New England Patriots (2-2)

The Spread: New England by 6.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: New England, 29-23
The Rationale: Ah, another Brady-Manning Bowl. The former has won 8 of their previous 12 meetings and I think that will be the case again. The Patriots just have a more well-rounded unit than Denver. Manning might just be enough to cover a 6.5 point spread.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) AT San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 10
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: San Francisco, 24-17
The Rationale: I like San Francisco to win this game. In no way, shape, or form do I think Ryan Fitzpatrick can lead Buffalo to their third victory at Candlestick. But, I hate the spread. San Francisco is coming off a blowout win against one of the worst offenses in football in New York. Buffalo has two strong running backs and their defense is coming off an embarrassing second half against New England. They’ll stay in it, but, San Francisco will win it.

San Diego Chargers (3-1) AT New Orleans Saints (0-4)

The Spread: New Orleans by 3.5
The Pick: San Diego
The Score: San Diego, 28-27
The Rationale: I would probably be pretty angry if I were a member of the Chargers. They are 3-1 with their only defeat coming to an undefeated Falcons team and yet they are underdogs against an 0-4 Saints bunch. Yes, they have Drew Brees. But, weren’t we using that as an excuse a month ago? The Saints defense is pathetic; and Philip Rivers should be able to slice through them like hot butter.

Houston Texans (4-0) AT New York Jets (2-2)

The Spread: Houston by 8
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston, 30-13
The Rationale: Sorry, Jets fans. You won’t be the first team to trip up the Texans. I said in my preseason picks that Rex Ryan will not make it through this season. After witnessing the abomination that was last weekend, I think my pick will come true.



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