Week Four Picks

Posted: September 26, 2012 in Uncategorized

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Last Week: 10-6
2012 Season: 27-20-1

Cleveland Browns (0-3) AT Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Spread: Baltimore by 12
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Baltimore, 27-17
The Rationale: Twelve points is a lot. Even if the Ravens are playing the lowly Cleveland Browns. After back-to-back weeks against tough opponents in Philadelphia and New England, I could see a bit of a letdown here. I’m not picking Cleveland to win. But, I think they’ll hold on and cover what is a very large spread. 

Carolina Panthers (1-2) AT Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

The Spread: Atlanta by 7
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 30-28
The Rationale: The Falcons, my preseason Super Bowl pick, are off to their finest start since their 1998 Super Bowl campaign. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders and Boston College’s Matt Ryan is a frontrunner for MVP. Meanwhile, Carolina is coming off a brutal loss to New York in which they were dominated in every facet of the game. So, naturally, I’m going with Carolina to pull the upset. It’s a must win for the Panthers if they hope to remain relevant in the NFC South.

New England Patriots (1-2) AT Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Spread: New England by 4
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 27-20
The Rationale: Who would have thought that the Patriots would be the team needing a victory here. New England lost in Buffalo last year, but had won seven straight in Orchard Park prior to that defeat. I’ll go with Belichick and Brady when they need a win over Gailey and Fitzpatrick any day of the week.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) AT Detroit Lions (1-2)

The Spread: Detroit by 4.5
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: Detroit, 30-14
The Rationale: This pick is on the basis of Matt Stafford being able to play through the hamstring injury he incurred last week in Tennessee. I think the Lions could win even with Shaun Hill playing (as long as he isn’t calling any QB sneaks). But, I’m confident that Detroit will have their way at home in a game they need to win with their 5,000 yard signal-caller in the huddle. 

San Diego Chargers (2-1) AT Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

The Spread: Kansas City by 1
The Pick: San Diego
The Score: San Diego, 28-13
The Rationale: The Chargers have won seven of their last nine games against Kansas City. I think they will make it eight of ten unless Jamaal Charles has another Herculean effort like the 233 yard outburst he provided in New Orleans. 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) AT St. Louis Rams (1-2)

The Spread: Seattle by 2.5
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis, 24-21
The Rationale: I’m not sold on Russell Wilson after what was an otherwise brutal performance turned victory on Monday night. The Seahawks have won 13 of their last 14 against St. Louis. But, after all the hoopla this week, I think Seattle is going to find it hard to focus on winning in a tough Edward Jones Dome.

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) AT New York Jets (2-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 4
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: San Francisco, 27-12
The Rationale: The Jets squeaked by in Miami last weekend thanks in large part to Dolphins coach Joe Philbin icing kicker Nick Folk by calling a timeout right before Folk yanked the game winning kick wide. Moments later, the Jets were victorious after the former Dallas Cowboy connected on his do-over. San Francisco’s defense should wreak havoc on Mark Sanchez. The Tebow watch begins in the Big Apple.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) AT Houston Texans (3-0)

The Spread: Houston by 12
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Houston, 38-31
The Rationale: These two teams have split their season series each of the past three years. The Titans defense has looked brutal in the early going, allowing at least 34 points in each of their first three outings. Houston QB Matt Schaub lost part of his ear last week, and he won’t be able to recover in time to cover this huge spread against a division rival. 

Oakland Raiders (1-2) AT Denver Broncos (1-2)

The Spread: Denver by 6.5
The Pick: Denver
The Score: Denver, 24-16
The Rationale: Peyton Manning’s honeymoon in Denver is coming to an end. His opening week victory over the Steelers is becoming overshadowed by his mediocre performances thereafter. Oakland, meanwhile, was able to get by Pittsburgh last week. But, the Mile High City will be no kind land for the Raiders. 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) AT Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

The Spread: Arizona by 6.5
The Pick: Arizona
The Score: Arizona, 29-17
The Rationale: How is the spread for this game just 6.5? Arizona gets to stay at home against a brutal Dolphins’ offense a week after they made the Eagles’ O’ look like Penn State’s. Arizona all the way.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 2.5
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati, 25-19
The Rationale: The Bengals have rebounded nicely after a blowout week one loss to Baltimore. Their victories over Cleveland and Washington were just warm-ups for the tougher games ahead on the schedule. This, however, is not one of them. The Bengals should have an easy affair in a sparsely populated EverBank Field.

New Orleans Saints (0-3) AT Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Spread: Green Bay by 7.5
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 34-21
The Rationale: Talk about a tough one for New Orleans to take. The Saints are winless and have to head to Lambeau to take on an angry Green Bay Packers team after Monday night’s debacle of a game. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a bad New Orleans defense. 

Washington Redskins (1-2) AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

The Spread: Tampa Bay by 3
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington, 28-21
The Rationale: I’m not sold on Tampa Bay. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I’m not sold on Tampa Bay. 

New York Giants (2-1) AT Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

The Spread: Philadelphia by 2
The Pick: New York Giants
The Score: New York Giants, 27-24
The Rationale: Andy Reid proved last week that he is a terribly inconsistent coach who cannot alter his strategy in-game. This week is Brian Dawkins’ retirement ceremony. Maybe if the Eagles still had some players with Weapon-X’s heart, I’d pick them.

Chicago Bears (2-1) AT Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Spread: Dallas by 3.5
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 17-13
The Rationale: Anyone actually still think Jay Cutler is a championship caliber QB? The only thing worse than the hissy-fits that Cutler will throw this Monday is the play of his offensive line. When DeMarcus Ware is on the other side, this is never a good thing.

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