Week Three Picks

Posted: September 19, 2012 in Uncategorized

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Last Week: 9-6-1
2012 Season: 17-14-1

New York Giants (1-1) AT Carolina Panthers (1-1)

The Spread: Carolina by 1
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 28-24
The Rationale: This is a tough nut to crack for a couple of reasons. First, the Giants haven’t looked very consistent this season. They usually struggle towards the beginning of the year before turning it on late. Second, Carolina is at home on a short week whilst New York must travel and play a full game after a hard-fought comeback victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday. I have more faith in the Giants’ weapons to get it done. But, I’m not very confident. 

St. Louis Rams (1-1) AT Chicago Bears (1-1)

The Spread: Chicago by 7
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago, 27-17
The Rationale: I like what Jeff Fisher is doing with St. Louis. I also think Sam Bradford may have turned the corner last week. But, the Chicago pass rush dwarfs the Washington pass rush sans Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler and Mike Tice will have 11 days to prepare for whatever Fisher will throw at them.

Buffalo Bills (1-1) AT Cleveland Browns (0-2)

The Spread: Buffalo by 3
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: Buffalo, 31-17
The Rationale: I picked the Bills in week one and then went against them in week two. I lost both times. I liked what I saw from Weeden and Co. in their loss to Cincinnati. But, the Browns’ run defense is putrid, and CJ Spiller is out to make a name for himself. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) AT Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The Spread: Dallas by 7
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Dallas, 24-19
The Rationale: I proclaimed my love for the Cowboys last week and they left me at the altar. So, I’m not going to be fooled by another outlandish spread. Dallas is a good team. I think they’ll win this game at home. But, I don’t have enough faith in the mental makeup of the team. Especially when compared to Greg Schiano’s Bucs. 

Detroit Lions (1-1) AT Tennessee Titans (0-2)

The Spread: Detroit by 3.5
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Tennessee, 28-24
The Rationale: The Titans can’t possibly fall to 0-3, right? Chris Johnson has to get it together eventually, right? I think at least one of these two are true. Matt Stafford has been turnover prone in his young career, and playing on the road is never a good recipe for a dome team.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) AT Indianapolis Colts (1-1)

The Spread: Indianapolis by 3
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Indianapolis, 27-14
The Rationale: On paper, the Jaguars may have the better offensive weapons. But, I’ll take Andrew Luck over Blaine Gabbert any day of the week. Jacksonville, as I have mentioned previously, is in for a long season. If they lose this game, they stare at a potential 0-5 start heading into their week six bye. 

New York Jets (1-1) AT Miami Dolphins (1-1)

The Spread: New York by 2.5
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 20-10
The Rationale: I love this pick. In fact, I don’t see any way you shouldn’t be putting money on New York this weekend. The Dolphins beat a brutal Oakland team last week and have a cross-country trip to Arizona on the horizon. If Darrelle Revis is back, put this one in the stone-cold, lead-pipe lock column.

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) AT Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The Spread: San Francisco by 7
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: San Francisco, 34-10
The Rationale: Yes, it’s a road game. But, the 49ers have already proven they can go in to tough environments and win. The Vikings have looked about as good as their record this season. They’ve gotten lucky to have played Jacksonville and Indianapolis the past two weeks. Alex Smith and the 49ers’ defense will remind Vikings’ fans of their place in the NFC North. 

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) AT Washington Redskins (1-1)

The Spread: Washington by 3
The Pick: Washington
The Score: Washington, 29-24
The Rationale: Redskins’ QB Robert Griffin III has taken the NFL by storm. Come Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals will be the next victim. I think these two teams may be about as equal in talent as possible in the NFL. But, home field and RG3 will be the difference in this affair. 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) AT New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Spread: New Orleans by 8.5
The Pick: Kansas City
The Score: New Orleans, 30-23
The Rationale: This matchup of disappointing 0-2 teams will take place Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs have their work cut out for them. This spread is a bit too high for my taste. If it were 6 or 7, I might bite. I think New Orleans wins this one. But, I have enough faith in a team trying to keep their season from spiraling out of control to keep this one close.

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) AT San Diego Chargers (2-0)

The Spread: San Diego by 3
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 24-21
The Rationale: I don’t get the hype for the Chargers. Who have they played? They beat the hapless Oakland Raiders on the road before triumphing at home against a banged up Tennessee Titans’ squad. Atlanta has proven time-and-time-again that they are good enough to win the big games. Norv Turner has never proven anything but gross incompetence. 

Houston Texans (2-0) AT Denver Broncos (1-1)

The Spread: Houston by 2
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston, 23-17
The Rationale: The Texans finally get a true test after kicking off the season against Big Ten teams Jacksonville and Miami. Matt Schaub and Arian Foster have looked good, and Peyton Manning looked abysmal against Atlanta. I expect the Texans to run many of the same coverages that were so successful for the Falcons. 

Pitttsburgh Steelers (1-1) AT Oakland Raiders (0-2)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 4.5
The Pick: Pittsburgh
The Score: Pittsburgh, 36-17
The Rationale: I think I’ve made myself clear in my utter disdain for the Oakland Raiders. The Carson Palmer trade has turned into a disaster and their offense is entirely too reliant on Darren McFadden. The Steelers looked impressive on defense in their win over the Jets. The New York offense may not be anything to write home about. But, when compared to the Raiders’, Rex Ryan’s group resembles the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) AT Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

The Spread: Philadelphia by 4
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 21-14
The Rationale: I want to pick this to finish in a one-point game. But, then I’d have to pick Arizona. I just can’t foresee Kevin Kolb actually beating the Eagles if they get a decent pass-rush. My biggest concern right now is the Philadelphia offensive line after losing C Jason Kelce and LT King Dunlap. 

New England Patriots (1-1) AT Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

The Spread: Baltimore by 3
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England, 26-20
The Rationale: Both teams are talented. Both teams know each other. The rematch of last January’s AFC Championship Game pits two teams coming off their first loss of the season. Does anyone really think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will fall to 1-2? Oh, and coming this Christmas for your child’s delight, a new book from the creator of “Where’s Waldo?” It’s called, “Where’s Welker?!?” If you can find him, let his fantasy owners know. 

Green Bay Packers (1-1) AT Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Spread: Green Bay by 3
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 28-10
The Rationale: Seattle is the toughest place to play in the NFL according to many studies. I learned the hard way last week that picking against Seattle when they’re at home is a bad strategy. So, I’ll echo the definition of insanity and try the same thing again. Typically, I would learn from my mistakes. But, like Mitt Romney in a presidential campaign, I’ll just keep doing the same old thing. 

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