Skoods’ Week Two Picks

Posted: September 12, 2012 in Uncategorized


Last Week: 8-8
2012 Season: 8-8

Chicago Bears (1-0) AT Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Spread: Green Bay by 6
The Pick: Green Bay
The Score: Green Bay, 28-21
The Rationale: The Packers absolutely need to win this game after losing at home to San Francisco to start the season. Bears’ QB Jay Cutler struggled at times and even through an ugly interception for a touchdown against a putrid Indianapolis defense, last week.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) AT Buffalo Bills (0-1)

The Spread: Buffalo by 3
The Pick: Kansas City
The Score: Kansas City, 24-21
The Rationale: Both teams are in dire need of a victory after shocking blowout losses in week one. The Bills look atrocious against the Jets, getting dominated in every facet of the game. If Jamaal Charles can run the ball successfully, I do not see Buffalo having enough offensively to stay with a tough Kansas City team.

Cleveland Browns (0-1) AT Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

The Spread: Cincinnati by 7
The Pick: Cleveland
The Score: Cincinnati, 14-10
The Rationale: Both Cleveland and Cincinnati’s offenses looked putrid last week. But, the Browns’ defense looked much better in containing Michael Vick than the Bengals’ did at limiting Joe Flacco. For this reason only do I have Cleveland covering the spread. The over-under for this game is 38.5. I suggest the under.

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) AT Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Spread: Minnesota by 2
The Pick: Minnesota
The Score: Minnesota, 28-17
The Rationale: The Vikings win the award for easiest schedule in the first few weeks of the season. Of course, the next couple of games are a gauntlet as Minnesota has San Francisco and Detroit on the slate. But, the Colts have absolutely no running game and a rookie QB playing his first home game. It might be close, but Adrian Peterson should have enough juice in his knees to pull the Vikings to their first 2-0 start since 2009.

Oakland Raiders (0-1) AT Miami Dolphins (0-1)

The Spread: Oakland by 3
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami, 19-16
The Rationale: I know. I said that you should pick against the Dolphins every week this season if you are playing a suicide pool. But, this would be the one week I would avoid. In perhaps the worst game of the week, I believe that Ryan Tannehill will grab his first victory in his home opener against the Raiders. There’s just too many questions on offense for Oakland.

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) AT New England Patriots (1-0)

The Spread: New England by 14
The Pick: Arizona
The Score: New England, 30-17
The Rationale: I have just two rules when picking games and in this instance they drastically conflict. #1. Always be wary of a west-coast team traveling to the east coast for a 1:00 PM game. #2. Never pick a favorite who is giving double-digit points in an NFL game. Yes, Arizona is traveling cross-country to Foxboro, where teams rarely get out alive. However, 14 points is a ton for an NFL team to win by. Especially one with a young defense and questions in the running game. If New England gets a big lead, can their defense and running game keep Arizona off the field and the scoreboard enough to cover? I do not think they can. Kevin Kolb is starting this one. So, I will probably regret this pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) AT New York Giants (0-1)

The Spread: New York by 9
The Pick: New York
The Score: New York, 41-21
The Rationale: I’ll jump on the high-throttle offense bandwagon for this one. I don’t like to pick high scores. But, with the way the NFL is changing, high scoring will remain the norm. The Giants will rebound from a disappointing opening night loss to Dallas by pummeling a much-improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. Expect at least 5 sacks of Josh Freeman.

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) AT Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

The Spread: Philadelphia by 2.5
The Pick: Philadelphia
The Score: Philadelphia, 26-23.
The Rationale: When was the last Eagles’ win that felt so underwhelming? You’ll find out the answer to that in our Eagles’ preview later in the week. But, one thing you can bet on is that the offense will not look quite as anemic as last week, even against a defense as stout as Baltimore’s. The problem I see, however, is the play-calling. If Andy Reid throws less than 35 times this week, I see Philadelphia winning. If he reverts back to his pass-happy nature, Baltimore will moonwalk out of Lincoln Financial Field to a chorus of boos and a shower of batteries from the Eagles’ faithful.

New Orleans Saints (0-1) AT Carolina Panthers (0-1)

The Spread: New Orleans by 3
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Carolina, 31-24
The Rationale: The Saints’ defense looked abysmal against rookie QB Robert Griffin III at home. What makes anyone think they will suddenly improve against a more seasoned but similar style of QB in Cam Newton? The Panthers haven’t beaten the Saints since their season finale in 2009. But, they should have Jonathan Stewart back from injury and starting 0-2 in the division would cripple any hopes of a playoff berth in 2012.

Houston Texans (1-0) AT Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

The Spread: Houston by 8
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston, 24-13
The Rationale: The Texans swept the Jaguars last season, but they were held under 30 points in both games. I think that we will see a similar story this week. The Texans’ defense should limit Jacksonville on the scoreboard. But, I have enough respect for the Jaguars’ preventative unit to stop Houston from running up the score.

Washington Redskins (1-0) AT St. Louis Rams (0-1)

The Spread: Washington by 3
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis, 26-23
The Rationale: It wouldn’t be the NFL without an upset here or there. Jeff Fisher’s Rams looked mighty impressive defensively in forcing turnovers and almost pulling out a victory against Detroit. Granted, few units looked better than Washington’s offense did in thrashing New Orleans. But, a rookie QB and RB tandem is bound for a few hiccups along the way. Look for St. Louis’ ball hawking defense to force a few RGIII picks and hold on for their first victory of 2012.

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) AT Seattle Seahawks (0-1)

The Spread: Dallas by 3
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas, 34-14
The Rationale: Seattle is known as the toughest place to play for road teams in the NFL. But, the Cowboys have a truly talented offense and the best pass rusher in football going against a rookie quarterback and a banged up Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses in football, so expect Jason Garrett’s play calling to rely a lot on DeMarco Murray. The fact that Dallas has 11 days between games does not bode well for Seattle, either.

New York Jets (1-0) AT Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

The Spread: Pittsburgh by 6
The Pick: New York
The Score: Pittsburgh, 17-14
The Rationale: I don’t think that New York is quite as good as last weeks blowout victory against Buffalo. However, I do believe that their defense is still mighty talented. Couple that with an atrocious offensive line in the Steel City and I don’t see Pittsburgh running away with this one. If Mark Sanchez plays as well as last weekend, however, New York will win and will likely challenge New England for supremacy in the AFC East.

Tennessee Titans (0-1) AT San Diego Chargers (1-0)

The Spread: Chargers by 6
The Pick: Push
The Score: Chargers, 26-20
The Rationale: This is a tough game to pick. So, I’ll take the cop out and go with the push. San Diego’s defense looked impressive in shutting down Oakland on Monday night. But, a lot of that has to do with just how brutal the Raiders are. Meanwhile, Tennessee enters this one coming off a loss to New England in which Chris Johnson looked slow and Jake Locker separated his shoulder. I still like their defense, though.

Detroit Lions (1-0) At San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

The Spread: San Francisco by 7
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: San Francisco, 28-14
The Rationale: There are two NFC teams that I believe have the offense to trump San Francisco’s defense at this point. One was Green Bay. The other is Detroit. The 49ers already proved that the Packers were no match. Will Calvin Johnson be able to succeed where few others have?

Denver Broncos (1-0) AT Atlanta Falcons (1-0)

The Spread: Atlanta by 3
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta, 34-29
The Rationale: I learned my lesson picking against the Falcons last weekend. Yes, Denver is for real. But, so is Atlanta. If Denver can’t duplicate the pressure they achieved against Pittsburgh, they will be picked apart by the Falcons’ daunting passing attack.


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